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And the Winner is.... low budget drama!

OscarContrary to the usual expensive and lavish productions, the Oscars ceremony this year is expected to be dominated by a string of low-budget dramatic films.

Memoirs of a GeishaAmong the top contenders for Oscar glory, only Munich and Memoirs of a Geisha can be considered traditional studio products - a sign of Hollywood's mould-breaking trend this year.

Munich is perhaps Steven Spielberg's most independent-minded film ever, filmed on a tight budget with a tough narrative and few special effects. Geisha, meanwhile, gained its nominations in relatively minor categories.

  CHALLENGE OR COMFORT ZONE?

That leaves the Oscar gala open for a slate of films that challenges the mainstream comfort zone more than any other selection in recent years.

Speilberg's Munich

 

The powerful gay cowboy story and Oscar frontrunner Brokeback Mountain, racial drama Crash and political period piece Good Night, and Good Luck - all of them indicate a thumbs down to Hollywood's most expensive and lavish productions like King Kong, War of the Worlds and The Chronicles of Narnia.

No wonder Hollywood wags are joking they might move the next Oscar ceremony to the Sundance Film Festival - especially since that independent film showcase is fast moving towards the mainstream.

But it's no surprise that Hollywood's artistic community plumbs for the movies which are seen as the best expression of their art.

   TICKETS TO RICHESBrokeback Mountain

With low-budget dramatic films dominating the Oscars this season, pundits are hailing edgy movies that are made cheaply as a sure-fire ticket to riches. That may be true for the select few that get Oscar nominations and statues, but respected research institute Kagan Research finds such independent-calibre dramas are generally a poor bet economically.

Wade Holden, an analyst with Kagan Research says, "Hollywood talent often makes these films because of a passion for the material, but the entire low-budget drama category doesn't have a good track record from an economic perspective."

Million Dollar Baby - last year's big Oscar hit

   100M DOLLAR HITS

The figures seem to bear this out. Of all the movies at the forefront of this year's Oscars, only Brokeback Mountain has a chance of breaking the $100 million mark at the US box office, a figure seen as the minimum requirement for a hit movie.

Last year's winner Million Dollar Baby just squeaked past the $100 million mark and you have to go back to the success of Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King to find that rare instance where popular taste coincided with that of the movie industry insiders.

This divide between the tastes of mainstream audiences and Hollywood is reflected in the themes of the movies chosen for Oscar consideration.

Brokeback Mountain has the message that same-sex relationships occur in all walks of life with a love that is as powerful as a heterosexual couple's.

   CULTURALLY QUESTIONING FILMSCrash

Crash addresses the real-world ambiguity of race and tolerance. Capote examines the literary genius of a man most Americans have likely never heard of. Good Night, And Good Luck delves into the relationship between the press and politics, and Munich asks searching questions about the human price exacted by an unrelenting war on terror - not exactly easy-viewing entertainment topics.

So is Hollywood's power as an arbiter of cultural tastes on the wane?
With box office receipts falling by some six percent last year, that might seem to be the case. But much of that shortfall could well be accounted for by the huge rise in DVD rentals as viewers choose their home movie theatres over the local multiplex.

Yet in the Internet age, Hollywood's celebrity culture has never been more popular around the world. With 84 countries broadcasting the show to over one billion people, the ultimate Hollywood competition remains a source of endless fascination.